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1.Kevin Pelton on Adjusting and correcting Pace Factors (www.basketballprospectus.com)
Teams that get a lot of offensive rebounds are unfairly slowed in pace. Similarly, those that draw a lot of fouls seem faster than they are. The main finding: "the average (first) field-goal attempt comes 13.8 seconds after the start of a possession, the average turnover after 12.2 seconds. Fouls, intriguingly, tend to come much earlier--8.6 seconds after the start of a possession. Naturally, because of quick putbacks, subsequent actions are all much faster, topping out at a 6.5-second average for multiple shot attempts."
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2.Marginal Dollars Per Marginal Win (www.basketballprospectus.com)
Looks at how much teams spent per marginal win. The winners? Stalwarts like Detroit, San Antonio and Utah (and New Orleans by virtue of Chris Paul). The losers? No surprise for New York with all four of their previous seasons in the top 10 of the past four years. And Minnesota does poorly too.
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3.Simmons: Don't deny NBA stat geeks the truth - ESPN The Magazine (sports.espn.go.com)
On extra stat gathering: "I demand the minutiae I know the team is hiding. Mega-assists. Russells. Stops and superstops. Desperation threes. Shooting percentages from every zone of the court."
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4.A Look Back at the progression of APBR in the last 5 years (www.basketballprospectus.com)
Including the central question: What better describes a player's value: his individual statistics or plus-minus data describing his impact on the team?
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5.Interview with Roland Beech, founder of 82games.com (slamonline.com)
A fantastic interview with Roland Beech, founder of 82games.com, how the site was started and the future aims of it. Discussion of gathering more data vs analyzing existing data in new ways.
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6.Is LBJ this year as good as Jordan in his Peak? (sports.espn.go.com)
Hollinger compares the season LBJ is having to the best Jordan produced using PER as the main comparison metric. LBJ comes up very close.
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7.Jim Schwartz Shapes the Titans’ Against-the-Grain Defense - NYTimes.com (www.nytimes.com)
“Fumbles are a random occurrence,” Schwartz said he told Belichick. “Being able to get interceptions or not throw interceptions has a high correlation with good teams. But over the course of a year, good teams don’t fumble any more or less than bad teams. Bill didn’t agree. He said, ‘No, good teams don’t fumble the ball.’ But actually, they fumble just as often as bad teams.”
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8.Basketball-Reference.com Blog » Blog Archive » Kevin Durant, Alpha Dogs, and supporting casts (www.basketball-reference.com)
In light of Kevin Durants horrible supporting cast, the folks at Basketball reference take a look at how other leading players coped with bad players around them.
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9.Action bias among elite soccer goalkeepers: The case of penalty kicks - Munich RePEc Personal Archive (mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de)
Soccer goalkeepers should keep still but they don't.
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10.Basketball-Reference.com Blog » Going Streaking (www.basketball-reference.com)
A look at the statistical likelihood of one team opening up the season with a long winning streak. The conclusion: 5 wins are easy, and expect a nearly three-quarter chance of one team extended their streak past 8 wins.
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11.82games +/- numbers for 2007/2008 season (82games.com)
"[The] ratings reflect each player’s points contributed per 100 possessions, as compared with the league average."
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12.Hollinger Analysis of Iverson-Billups-McDyess Trade (sports.espn.go.com)
"I can't believe how good this trade is for the Denver Nuggets. On almost every level, it accomplishes the main objectives this team had for both the present and the future."
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13.
"I’m probably pretty boring to watch a game with because I’m all about expected values. I don’t even care if it goes in or not, I’m all about it, ‘Should it go in?’ I can live with randomness. I mean, if it’s a close game in the end, yeah, I’m just like anyone else. But I just want us to play the odds all the time."
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